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UK: Key economic events ahead – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offer a brief preview of Friday’s key macroeconomic releases due on the cards at 0930 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“UK GDP: Based on our forecasts for flat industrial production, a small 0.1% rise in service sector output and a modest rebound in construction output, GDP would rise by 0.1% in September. That would in turn imply a 0.6% q-o-q growth rate for Q3. While it would take a material downside surprise to the monthly rate to yield something weaker than 0.6% q-o-q, only a small upside surprise could easily push growth up to 0.7% during the quarter relative to our 0.6% view.

UK Industrial Production: The manufacturing PMI and CBI surveys held up reasonably well in September before falling in October; however, car production (worth just 6½% of total industrial production and about 9% of manufacturing) was weak during September according to the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) figures. We forecast a flat manufacturing reading, but the risk is that weak auto production ends up dominating the figures.”

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