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JPY: In the frame for carry – ING

“US equities continue to enjoy an impressive recovery and as above, investors are interested in whether any bi-partisan support for infrastructure projects can extend the US growth story through the entirety of 2019,” ING analysts note.

Key quotes

“The market is still contemplating where the top is for the Fed Funds’ cycle and the bearish flattening theme for the US Treasury curve looks set to continue. If, as we suspect, the risk environment can hold up through November in the (unlikely) expectation of a US-China trade deal, then the JPY could find itself as the preferred funding currency for EM growth plays. That said, look out for Chinese IP growth this week and also take care as to how USD/CNY fares around 7.00.”

“Locally, we’ll see 3Q Japanese GDP data early Wednesday. A large QoQ decline is expected, adding to the narrative that the BoJ will be on hold through-out 2019. There’s also the consumption tax hike to deal with as well. On balance, we see USD/JPY pushing up to the highs of the year at 114.50 – although presumably, we might be getting close to levels when the White House starts trying to talk the dollar lower.”

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