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Economists see 25% chance of a no deal Brexit as clock ticks – Reuters poll

According to the economists polled by Reuters this week, a quarter of them believes that both the UK and the European Union (EU) will fail to reach a Brexit deal on the terms of departure, with less than five months left for the UK-EU officially split.

Key Findings:

It has been between 20 and 30 percent since Reuters began asking in July 2017. Forecasts in the latest poll ranged from 5 to 75 percent.

While the anticipated post-referendum recession never materialized, economic growth has slowed and is predicted to be 1.3 percent this year, the poll of 70 economists found.

When asked about the chance of a recession in the coming year, economists have a median response of 23 percent – barely changed from last month. When asked about one within the next two years they said 30 percent.

On the Bank of England, a 25bp hike seen in April 2019 and another in early 2020.

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